And, according to a new study from the RAND Corporation, Brexit is likely to personally cost every Scotsperson £1,600 per head on British Independence from the EU-bloc.
To consider the costs on the Anglo-Scottish renewable energy sector and the adverse economic impact on voters, the seminal Renewables After Brexit conference was held at Dundee University earlier this month to share expert views and to develop leadership strategies on the way ahead for the Anglo-Scottish renewable energy sector. Renewable energy experts from across the EU and England took part.
The Scottish Energy Minister (Paul Wheelhouse, above) and the Scottish Renewables trade association, were both asked to comment on Renewables After Brexit – or to otherwise contribute, before or after.
Yesterday, Scotland’s jobless total rose by 8,000 in the three months to October and now stands at 114,000, according to official government figures.
The unemployment rate increased by 0.3% to 4.1% – almost on a par with the UK rate of 4.3%.
Meanwhile, only one of the eight presented options would see the UK economy better off than it is now: a trilateral UK-EU-US free trade agreement, which does not seem very likely.
According to the RAND Report, leaving the EU with no deal, which would mean reverting to basic World Trade Organisation rules, would cause the greatest economic loss for the UK.
The result would be a loss in GDP of nearly 5%, or $140 billion, in the 10 years after Brexit, compared with the UK’s economic performance inside the EU.
Researchers at RAND have measured likely monetary changes in GDP growth, GDP per capita, trade and foreign direct investment for the UK, EU and US across the eight trade scenarios.
The scenarios include five ‘hard Brexit’ options:
- WTO rules
- A free-trade UK-EU deal
- A free trade UK-US-EU deal
- A UK-US deal, and
- An extended transition period during which EU and UK tariffs do not change, but other non-tariff barriers emerge.
Three ‘soft Brexit’ scenarios include the Norwegian model (membership in the European Economic Area), the Swiss model (series of bilateral agreements), and a full customs union.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out the option of remaining in the EU customs union after Brexit.
Charles Ries, vice-president at RAND International and lead author of the report, said:
“The analysis clearly shows that the UK will be economically worse-off outside of the EU under most trade scenarios. The key question for the UK is how much worse-off <it will be>.
A UK strategy of trying to pick apart European unity would be unlikely to work since it is in the best interests of all EU member states to work together, RAND said.
The EU, for its part, may see a benefit in adopting a ‘zero sum game’ approach, and its top political priority is to discourage other member states from withdrawing.
Ries added: “Based on our insights, it is in the best interests of the UK to cooperate with its EU partners to find a new relationship with Europe. This would preserve economic benefits for both sides, but also give the UK the freedom from EU rules which it seeks.”
14 Dec 2017