For the second half of this year, one assumption is that oil pricing will rebound – not to $100 a barrel granted, that’s probably over for good – but to around today’s level.
This assumption rests on the notion that what could happen in the second quarter will again be temporary because of high US inventory levels, the end of cold weather in the US and refinery turnarounds. But first of all, you need to ask yourselves this question: Why exactly did oil prices recover in February?
But you would be very unwise not to at least build $30-barrel into your scenario planning.
Read the full article in Scottish Energy News: The historic long term average price of crude oil is $30-barrel – http://goo.gl/FKGxSw