It’s not just N. Sea oil that’s ‘lower for longer’: Aberdeen house prices forecast to fall again over the next two years

Aberdeen house price forecast
Aberdeen (at bottom) and Scotland house price forecast

Aberdeen’s average house price fell by 19% from £199,000 in September 2014 to £162,000 in February 2017. 

However, the peak to trough gap has narrowed slightly to 16%, with the average price picking up in recent months, reaching £165,000 in September 2017, according to the UK House Price Index

Meanwhile Aberdeenshire’s average house price fell from £203,000 in April 2015 to £187,000 in March 2017 but there has been a subsequent increase to £192,000 in September.

Following a downward trend, the Aberdeen area as a whole is seeing the first sign of an upturn in transactions signalling a gradual recovery in buyer confidence: 

There have already been 5,994 transactions during the first nine months of 2017 – a 2% increase on the same period last year.

But this is still around 20% down from the height of the market in 2014 when there were 8,108 sales in Aberdeen.

And average prices in the Aberdeen area are forecast to fall again in the next two years.

According to estate agency Savills, average Aberdeen prices will fall by 1.5% next year and drop another 1% in 2019.

And while Savills forecast an increase over the next five years of 4.5% in the Aberdeen area, average prices across Scotland as a whole will rocket forward by 17% – more than three times the Granite City, as  Faisal Choudhry, Savills’ Head of Scotland Residential Research, explained:

“While exceptional properties and established locations – such as AB13, AB15 and AB25 – will continue to attract buyers, the increasingly high level of available stock <in Aberdeen> will suppress house price growth in the short term.”  

17 Nov 2017

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