New analysis undertaken by the Solar Trade Association shows that solar power will match onshore wind on price by around 2017-18.
The industry has also shown that in conjunction with storage, it will be able to compete with nuclear power well before the new nuclear plants currently being planned come online.
The Solar Trade Association’s analysis is consistent with mainstream analysis including recent reports by the IEA Fraunhofer, EPIA, McKinsey, Deutsche Bank and Bloomberg.
And the Solar Trade Association is calling for the National Grid to look again at its predictions for solar power in coming decades.
In the latest forecasts published by the grid operator (on Friday) the National Grid’s statistics on current and future solar arrays are said to fall far below other estimates and need to be revised upwards.
Solar Trade Association Chief Executive Paul Barwell commented: “It is frustrating that both government and National Grid are basing important decisions on out of date data. This undermines what the solar industry has achieved so far and risks holding back solar’s potential.”
“The number of solar installations in place is higher than in official statistics.”
“The cost of solar has fallen dramatically. We forecast that solar will become cheap enough to compete without public subsidy by the end of the decade, but only if it has a stable policy framework. Using accurate data is an essential part of that.”
National Grid’s two green scenarios predict only 7.5GW and 8.5GW of installed solar capacity by 2020 [1], whereas even the Department for Energy and Climate Change is predicting 12GW [2], and the Minister’s ambition is for 20GW, which the industry fully supports.
Even the National Grid’s figure on what is in place today – 2.3GW [3] – is being challenged as not reflecting the reality on the ground.
Pixie Energy is an incubator and a facilitator of strategic research and project work, focusing on energy regulation, policy and markets at the local and national level. Find out more about Pixie Energy